Why Furnace & Water Heater Replacements Cost More in Colorado Starting in 2026

As of January 1, 2026, a new Colorado law is officially changing what gas furnaces and gas water heaters can be sold or installed statewide.

Under Colorado’s Ultra Low NOx Law (HB23-1161), all new gas furnaces and water heaters sold or installed in Colorado must meet Ultra Low NOx emissions standards or be ENERGY STAR® certified.

The goal of the law is to improve air quality, but it also means higher replacement costs and fewer equipment options for homeowners moving forward. This doesn’t require anyone to replace working systems - but it does change what happens when replacement becomes necessary.

Understanding Colorado’s Ultra Low NOx Law (HB23-1161)

Effective: January 1, 2026

Applies to:

  • New gas furnaces

  • New gas water heaters

  • Any gas unit being sold or installed in Colorado

Requirements:

  • Ultra Low NOx–certified equipment or

  • ENERGY STAR®–rated systems

Does NOT apply to:

  • Existing, functional furnaces or water heaters already installed

    • If your current system works, you can keep it.

    • When it needs replacement, options and costs look different than they did before 2026.

What Equipment Is No Longer Available

Standard 80% Gas Furnaces - Traditional 80% furnaces no longer meet emissions standards and are no longer sold in Colorado. Any remaining non-compliant inventory was sold through the end of 2025.

Natural Draft (Atmospheric) Water Heaters - Older water heaters that vent naturally through a chimney cannot meet Ultra Low NOx standards due to their open combustion design. These units are being phased out in favor of sealed combustion models.

Why Replacement Costs Are Increasing

Homeowners should expect higher upfront costs when replacing gas furnaces or water heaters.

  • Common reasons include:

  • Low-emission burner technology

  • Sealed combustion requirements

  • Power venting instead of chimney venting

  • Electrical connections for fans and controls

  • More complex installation labor

Typical impact: Replacement costs may increase by $1,000–$2,000 or more, depending on the home’s layout and venting configuration.

High Efficiency Does Not Always Mean Compliant

A common misconception we hear is “If a furnace is high efficiency, it must meet the new law.”

That’s not always true. Efficiency vs. Emissions

  • AFUE (Efficiency): How much fuel becomes usable heat.

  • NOx (Emissions): How much pollution the system produces during combustion.

A furnace can be 90 - 95% efficient and still not meet Ultra Low NOx requirements if it lacks the proper burner design or certification.

Efficiency and emissions are different measurements.

What This Means for Homeowners and Buyers

  • Older systems now carry higher future replacement costs

  • Homes with aging furnaces or water heaters may require more budgeting

  • Compliant, recently upgraded systems can add value

  • Buyers should plan ahead - especially in homes built before 2000

What This Means for Sellers

  • Aging mechanical systems may affect pricing or negotiations

  • Buyers may request credits due to increased replacement costs

  • Homes with compliant upgrades may stand out in the market

  • Transparency around system age helps avoid last-minute surprises

Why Colorado Is Targeting NOx Emissions

  • NOx (nitrogen oxides) contribute to:

  • Smog and poor air quality

  • Respiratory and asthma issues

  • Environmental damage

Colorado has struggled to meet federal air quality standards, and this law is part of a broader effort to reduce pollution from everyday household appliances.

  • Bottom Line - No one is required to replace working equipment

  • Replacement costs are rising due to cleaner technology

  • Equipment options are more limited than before

  • Planning ahead matters more than ever

Understanding these changes early helps homeowners, buyers, and sellers make informed decisions, without surprises.

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